Don Quixote was certain he saw Giants instead
of windmills. In this epic story, he believed he knew the answers and saw what
he wanted to see. Unfortunately in many
organizations, there is this same phenomenon, a need to act as if we are
certain. In fact, the higher up you go
in an organization, the compulsion of acting with certainty becomes greater and
greater. Statements like “That’s why we pay
you the big bucks” are used to imply that the higher in an organization, the
more you are expected to just “know”.
Some think they must act with “pretend
certainty” for the benefit of their career.
Others have convinced themselves of “arrogant certainty” where they
believe they know the answer or solution but don’t (or can’t) provide any solid
basis for this certainty. Unfortunately this arrogance can be interpreted as
confidence that can be dangerous to the success of a company. Nassim Nicolas Taleb refers to “epistemic
arrogance” that highlights the difference between what someone actually knows
and how much he thinks he knows. The excess implies arrogance.
What has allowed certainty within companies to
thrive is that there is a distance between the upfront certainty and the time
it takes to get to the final outcome.
There lacks accountability between certainty at the beginning and the
actual results at the end. Often times
the difference is explained away by the incompetence of others who didn’t build
or implement the solution correctly.
Of
course, the truth is somewhere in between. The concept of certainty is actually
dangerous to an enterprise since it removes the opportunity of acknowledging
the options and allowing the enterprise to apply a discovery mindset approach
toward real customer value via customer feedback loops and more.
We also want to avoid the inverse that is
remaining in uncertainty due to analysis paralysis. A way to avoid this is to apply work in an
incremental framework with customer feedback loops to enable more effective and
timely decision-making. Customer feedback will provide us with the evidence for
making better decisions. Applying an incremental mindset will enable us to make
smaller bets that are easier to make and allow us to adapt sooner.
A healthier and more realistic approach is to
have leaders who understand that uncertainty is actually a smart starting
position and then apply processes that support gaining certainty. It is,
therefore, incumbent upon us to have an approach that admits to limited
information and uncertainty, and then applies a discovery process toward
customer value. In the end, the beaten and battered Don Quixote forswears all
the chivalric false certainty he followed so fervently. Is it time for
management to give up the certainty mindset they think they have and instead
replace it with a discovery mindset as a better path to customer success?
